What is a convective outlook?

A convective outlook primarily indicates the forecast for severe storms or convective activity.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues narrative and graphical convective outlooks to provide the contiguous U.S. NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the public, media and emergency managers with the potential for severe (tornado, wind gusts 50 knots or greater, or hail 1-inch diameter size or greater) and non-severe (general) convection and specific severe weather threats during the following three days.  The Convective Outlook defines areas of slight risk (SLGT), moderate risk (MDT) or high risk (HIGH) of severe thunderstorms for a 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC.  The Day 1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks also depict areas of general thunderstorms (GEN TSTMS), while the Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks may use SEE TEXT for areas where convection may approach or slightly exceed severe criteria.  The outlooks are available on the Storm Prediction Center web site.

Reference(s):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
FAA AC 00-45H Aviation Weather Services pg. 5-35

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